NBA Over/Under 2025-2026 Season

Chance to win

How likely each player was to finish first, or in the top 4, as of each date of the season. Rebuilt in October 2026 with the method the 2026-27 page uses: each day, the rest of the season was simulated 100,000 times from each team's record, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence), with how good each team really is drawn at random in every simulation. Every simulated season is scored with the pool's rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

Scenarios

Every way the last open teams could have finished, and where each player would have ended up. It opens on the first date with 20 or fewer teams still undecided; pick a later date to follow the finish. Teams far from their line start on their likely side, and clicking any team changes it.

By team

By week

This plot is updated early each week with the previous week’s results (starting on Monday, October 27, 2025).

By game number

Approaching win projection

If a team exceeds the win projection during the season, Wins Outcome Determined will be shown as OVER.
If a team is not able to win enough games to exceed the projection in the number of games remaining, Wins Outcome Determined will change to UNDER.
If either of these outcomes are still possible, Wins Outcome Determined will remain as Not Yet.

The purple square corresponds to the projected number of wins based on the current team winning percentage. The dotted purple line shows what this projection would look like from current outcomes.

Vegas Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled prior to the season start. The last two columns are based on games played through 2026-04-12.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2026-04-12

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2026-04-12

Phil

Andy

Ryan

Jake

Chester

Adonis

Mike

Mary

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

Teams that clinched yesterday

The Atlanta Hawks clinched UNDER yesterday.
The Brooklyn Nets clinched UNDER yesterday.
The Chicago Bulls clinched UNDER yesterday.
The Denver Nuggets clinched OVER yesterday.
The New York Knicks clinched UNDER yesterday.

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date	Away Team	Away Score	Home Team	Home Score
2026-04-12	Orlando Magic	108	Boston Celtics	113
2026-04-12	Washington Wizards	117	Cleveland Cavaliers	130
2026-04-12	Detroit Pistons	133	Indiana Pacers	121
2026-04-12	Atlanta Hawks	117	Miami Heat	143
2026-04-12	Charlotte Hornets	110	New York Knicks	96
2026-04-12	Milwaukee Bucks	106	Philadelphia 76ers	126
2026-04-12	Brooklyn Nets	101	Toronto Raptors	136
2026-04-12	Chicago Bulls	128	Dallas Mavericks	149
2026-04-12	Memphis Grizzlies	101	Houston Rockets	132
2026-04-12	New Orleans Pelicans	126	Minnesota Timberwolves	132
2026-04-12	Phoenix Suns	135	Oklahoma City Thunder	103
2026-04-12	Denver Nuggets	128	San Antonio Spurs	118
2026-04-12	Utah Jazz	107	Los Angeles Lakers	131
2026-04-12	Golden State Warriors	110	LA Clippers	115
2026-04-12	Sacramento Kings	110	Portland Trail Blazers	122

Current standings

By conference

Playoff seeds are determined using the NBA’s official tiebreaker procedures. Seeds 1-6 earn direct playoff spots; seeds 7-10 enter the Play-In Tournament. When all tiebreakers are exhausted, alphabetical order is used as a stand-in for the random drawing specified in the rules.

Legend: Clinched #N = seed locked in | Clinched #N or better = guaranteed seed N or better | Either #X or #Y = seed is one of a few remaining options | pi = clinched play-in spot | o = eliminated from playoff contention | e = eliminated from postseason

Western

Seed	Team	Division	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct	Games Back	Status
1	Oklahoma City Thunder	Northwest	64	18	0.780		Clinched #1
2	San Antonio Spurs	Southwest	62	20	0.756	2.0	Clinched #2
3	Denver Nuggets	Northwest	54	28	0.659	10.0	Clinched #3
4	Los Angeles Lakers	Pacific	53	29	0.646	11.0	Clinched #4
5	Houston Rockets	Southwest	52	30	0.634	12.0	Clinched #5
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	Northwest	49	33	0.598	15.0	Clinched #6
7	Phoenix Suns	Pacific	45	37	0.549	19.0	Clinched #7
8	Portland Trail Blazers	Northwest	42	40	0.512	22.0	Clinched #8
9	Los Angeles Clippers	Pacific	42	40	0.512	22.0	Clinched #9
10	Golden State Warriors	Pacific	37	45	0.451	27.0	Clinched #10
11	New Orleans Pelicans	Southwest	26	56	0.317	38.0	e - Eliminated
12	Dallas Mavericks	Southwest	26	56	0.317	38.0	e - Eliminated
13	Memphis Grizzlies	Southwest	25	57	0.305	39.0	e - Eliminated
14	Sacramento Kings	Pacific	22	60	0.268	42.0	e - Eliminated
15	Utah Jazz	Northwest	22	60	0.268	42.0	e - Eliminated

Eastern

Seed	Team	Division	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct	Games Back	Status
1	Detroit Pistons	Central	60	22	0.732		Clinched #1
2	Boston Celtics	Atlantic	56	26	0.683	4.0	Clinched #2
3	New York Knicks	Atlantic	53	29	0.646	7.0	Clinched #3
4	Cleveland Cavaliers	Central	52	30	0.634	8.0	Clinched #4
5	Toronto Raptors	Atlantic	46	36	0.561	14.0	Clinched #5
6	Atlanta Hawks	Southeast	46	36	0.561	14.0	Clinched #6
7	Philadelphia 76ers	Atlantic	45	37	0.549	15.0	Clinched #7
8	Orlando Magic	Southeast	45	37	0.549	15.0	Clinched #8
9	Charlotte Hornets	Southeast	44	38	0.537	16.0	Clinched #9
10	Miami Heat	Southeast	43	39	0.524	17.0	Clinched #10
11	Milwaukee Bucks	Central	32	50	0.390	28.0	e - Eliminated
12	Chicago Bulls	Central	31	51	0.378	29.0	e - Eliminated
13	Brooklyn Nets	Atlantic	20	62	0.244	40.0	e - Eliminated
14	Indiana Pacers	Central	19	63	0.232	41.0	e - Eliminated
15	Washington Wizards	Southeast	17	65	0.207	43.0	e - Eliminated

By division

West

Pacific

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct
Los Angeles Lakers	53	29	0.646
Phoenix Suns	45	37	0.549
Los Angeles Clippers	42	40	0.512
Golden State Warriors	37	45	0.451
Sacramento Kings	22	60	0.268

Northwest

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct
Oklahoma City Thunder	64	18	0.780
Denver Nuggets	54	28	0.659
Minnesota Timberwolves	49	33	0.598
Portland Trail Blazers	42	40	0.512
Utah Jazz	22	60	0.268

Southwest

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct
San Antonio Spurs	62	20	0.756
Houston Rockets	52	30	0.634
Dallas Mavericks	26	56	0.317
New Orleans Pelicans	26	56	0.317
Memphis Grizzlies	25	57	0.305

East

Central

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct
Detroit Pistons	60	22	0.732
Cleveland Cavaliers	52	30	0.634
Milwaukee Bucks	32	50	0.390
Chicago Bulls	31	51	0.378
Indiana Pacers	19	63	0.232

Atlantic

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct
Boston Celtics	56	26	0.683
New York Knicks	53	29	0.646
Toronto Raptors	46	36	0.561
Philadelphia 76ers	45	37	0.549
Brooklyn Nets	20	62	0.244

Southeast

Team	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct
Atlanta Hawks	46	36	0.561
Orlando Magic	45	37	0.549
Charlotte Hornets	44	38	0.537
Miami Heat	43	39	0.524
Washington Wizards	17	65	0.207