NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.

Last updated at 2021-05-17 04:30:57 US Pacific time

Chance to win

How likely each player was to finish first, or in the top 4, as of each date of the season. Rebuilt in October 2026 with the method the 2026-27 page uses: each day, the rest of the season was simulated 100,000 times from each team's record, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence), with how good each team really is drawn at random in every simulation. Every simulated season is scored with the pool's rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

Scenarios

Every way the last open teams could have finished, and where each player would have ended up. It opens on the first date with 20 or fewer teams still undecided; pick a later date to follow the finish. Teams far from their line start on their likely side, and clicking any team changes it.

By team

By week

This plot is updated on Monday each week with the previous week’s results.

By game number

Approaching win projection

  • If a team exceeds the win projection during the season, Wins Outcome Determined will be shown as OVER.
  • If a team is not able to win enough games to exceed the projection in the number of games remaining, Wins Outcome Determined will change to UNDER.
  • If either of these outcomes are still possible, Wins Outcome Determined will remain as Not Yet.

The purple square corresponds to the projected number of wins based on the current team winning percentage. The dotted purple line shows what this projection would look like from current outcomes.

Vegas Insider Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/ on 2020-11-30. The last two columns are based on games played through 2021-05-16.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2021-05-16

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2021-05-16

Ryan
Jake
Jenelle
Mike
Chester
Mary
Adonis
Phil

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date Away Team Away Score Home Team Home Score
2021-05-16 Boston Celtics 92 New York Knicks 96
2021-05-16 Indiana Pacers 125 Toronto Raptors 113
2021-05-16 Charlotte Hornets 110 Washington Wizards 115
2021-05-16 Phoenix Suns 123 San Antonio Spurs 121
2021-05-16 Memphis Grizzlies 101 Golden State Warriors 113
2021-05-16 Houston Rockets 95 Atlanta Hawks 124
2021-05-16 Cleveland Cavaliers 109 Brooklyn Nets 123
2021-05-16 Orlando Magic 117 Philadelphia 76ers 128
2021-05-16 Miami Heat 120 Detroit Pistons 107
2021-05-16 Milwaukee Bucks 112 Chicago Bulls 118
2021-05-16 Dallas Mavericks 121 Minnesota Timberwolves 136
2021-05-16 Los Angeles Lakers 110 New Orleans Pelicans 98
2021-05-16 Los Angeles Clippers 112 Oklahoma City Thunder 117
2021-05-16 Denver Nuggets 116 Portland Trail Blazers 132
2021-05-16 Utah Jazz 121 Sacramento Kings 99

Current standings

By conference

Note that tie breakers to determine playoff seeds are not currently set.

Western

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Utah Jazz Northwest 52 20 0.722
Phoenix Suns Northwest 51 21 0.708 1.0
Los Angeles Clippers Pacific 47 25 0.653 5.0
Denver Nuggets Northwest 47 25 0.653 5.0
Los Angeles Lakers Pacific 42 30 0.583 10.0
Dallas Mavericks Southwest 42 30 0.583 10.0
Portland Trail Blazers Pacific 42 30 0.583 10.0
Golden State Warriors Pacific 39 33 0.542 13.0
Memphis Grizzlies Southwest 38 34 0.528 14.0
San Antonio Spurs Southwest 33 39 0.458 19.0
Sacramento Kings Pacific 31 41 0.431 21.0
New Orleans Pelicans Southwest 31 41 0.431 21.0
Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest 23 49 0.319 29.0
Oklahoma City Thunder Northwest 22 50 0.306 30.0
Houston Rockets Southwest 17 55 0.236 35.0

Eastern

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Philadelphia 76ers Atlantic 49 23 0.681
Brooklyn Nets Atlantic 48 24 0.667 1.0
Milwaukee Bucks Central 46 26 0.639 3.0
Atlanta Hawks Southeast 41 31 0.569 8.0
New York Knicks Atlantic 41 31 0.569 8.0
Miami Heat Southeast 40 32 0.556 9.0
Boston Celtics Atlantic 36 36 0.500 13.0
Indiana Pacers Central 34 38 0.472 15.0
Washington Wizards Southeast 34 38 0.472 15.0
Charlotte Hornets Southeast 33 39 0.458 16.0
Chicago Bulls Central 31 41 0.431 18.0
Toronto Raptors Atlantic 27 45 0.375 22.0
Cleveland Cavaliers Central 22 50 0.306 27.0
Orlando Magic Southeast 21 51 0.292 28.0
Detroit Pistons Central 20 52 0.278 29.0

By division

West

Pacific
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Los Angeles Clippers 47 25 0.653
Los Angeles Lakers 42 30 0.583
Portland Trail Blazers 42 30 0.583
Golden State Warriors 39 33 0.542
Sacramento Kings 31 41 0.431
Northwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Utah Jazz 52 20 0.722
Phoenix Suns 51 21 0.708
Denver Nuggets 47 25 0.653
Minnesota Timberwolves 23 49 0.319
Oklahoma City Thunder 22 50 0.306
Southwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Dallas Mavericks 42 30 0.583
Memphis Grizzlies 38 34 0.528
San Antonio Spurs 33 39 0.458
New Orleans Pelicans 31 41 0.431
Houston Rockets 17 55 0.236

East

Central
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Milwaukee Bucks 46 26 0.639
Indiana Pacers 34 38 0.472
Chicago Bulls 31 41 0.431
Cleveland Cavaliers 22 50 0.306
Detroit Pistons 20 52 0.278
Atlantic
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Philadelphia 76ers 49 23 0.681
Brooklyn Nets 48 24 0.667
New York Knicks 41 31 0.569
Boston Celtics 36 36 0.500
Toronto Raptors 27 45 0.375
Southeast
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Atlanta Hawks 41 31 0.569
Miami Heat 40 32 0.556
Washington Wizards 34 38 0.472
Charlotte Hornets 33 39 0.458
Orlando Magic 21 51 0.292