NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.

Last updated at 2022-04-11 04:15:11 US Pacific time

Chance to win

How likely each player was to finish first, or in the top 4, as of each date of the season. Rebuilt in October 2026 with the method the 2026-27 page uses: each day, the rest of the season was simulated 100,000 times from each team's record, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence), with how good each team really is drawn at random in every simulation. Every simulated season is scored with the pool's rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

Scenarios

Every way the last open teams could have finished, and where each player would have ended up. It opens on the first date with 20 or fewer teams still undecided; pick a later date to follow the finish. Teams far from their line start on their likely side, and clicking any team changes it.

By team

By week

This plot is updated on Monday each week with the previous week’s results.

By game number

Approaching win projection

  • If a team exceeds the win projection during the season, Wins Outcome Determined will be shown as OVER.
  • If a team is not able to win enough games to exceed the projection in the number of games remaining, Wins Outcome Determined will change to UNDER.
  • If either of these outcomes are still possible, Wins Outcome Determined will remain as Not Yet.

The purple square corresponds to the projected number of wins based on the current team winning percentage. The dotted purple line shows what this projection would look like from current outcomes.

Vegas Insider Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/ on 2021-09-17. The last two columns are based on games played through 2022-04-10.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2022-04-10

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2022-04-10

Chester
Mike
Jenelle
Mary
Adonis
Phil
Ryan
Jake

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

There was no change in scores for all players based on the outcomes of yesterday’s games.

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date Away Team Away Score Home Team Home Score
2022-04-10 Indiana Pacers 126 Brooklyn Nets 134
2022-04-10 Washington Wizards 108 Charlotte Hornets 124
2022-04-10 Milwaukee Bucks 115 Cleveland Cavaliers 133
2022-04-10 Atlanta Hawks 130 Houston Rockets 114
2022-04-10 Boston Celtics 139 Memphis Grizzlies 110
2022-04-10 Toronto Raptors 94 New York Knicks 105
2022-04-10 Miami Heat 111 Orlando Magic 125
2022-04-10 Detroit Pistons 106 Philadelphia 76ers 118
2022-04-10 Chicago Bulls 124 Minnesota Timberwolves 120
2022-04-10 San Antonio Spurs 120 Dallas Mavericks 130
2022-04-10 Los Angeles Lakers 146 Denver Nuggets 141
2022-04-10 Oklahoma City Thunder 88 Los Angeles Clippers 138
2022-04-10 Golden State Warriors 128 New Orleans Pelicans 107
2022-04-10 Sacramento Kings 116 Phoenix Suns 109
2022-04-10 Utah Jazz 111 Portland Trail Blazers 80

Current standings

By conference

Note that tie breakers to determine playoff seeds are not currently set.

Western

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Phoenix Suns Pacific 64 18 0.780
Memphis Grizzlies Southwest 56 26 0.683 8.0
Golden State Warriors Pacific 53 29 0.646 11.0
Dallas Mavericks Southwest 52 30 0.634 12.0
Utah Jazz Northwest 49 33 0.598 15.0
Denver Nuggets Northwest 48 34 0.585 16.0
Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest 46 36 0.561 18.0
Los Angeles Clippers Pacific 42 40 0.512 22.0
New Orleans Pelicans Southwest 36 46 0.439 28.0
San Antonio Spurs Southwest 34 48 0.415 30.0
Los Angeles Lakers Pacific 33 49 0.402 31.0
Sacramento Kings Pacific 30 52 0.366 34.0
Portland Trail Blazers Northwest 27 55 0.329 37.0
Oklahoma City Thunder Northwest 24 58 0.293 40.0
Houston Rockets Southwest 20 62 0.244 44.0

Eastern

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Miami Heat Southeast 53 29 0.646
Philadelphia 76ers Atlantic 51 31 0.622 2.0
Milwaukee Bucks Central 51 31 0.622 2.0
Boston Celtics Atlantic 51 31 0.622 2.0
Toronto Raptors Atlantic 48 34 0.585 5.0
Chicago Bulls Central 46 36 0.561 7.0
Cleveland Cavaliers Central 44 38 0.537 9.0
Brooklyn Nets Atlantic 44 38 0.537 9.0
Atlanta Hawks Southeast 43 39 0.524 10.0
Charlotte Hornets Southeast 43 39 0.524 10.0
New York Knicks Atlantic 37 45 0.451 16.0
Washington Wizards Southeast 35 47 0.427 18.0
Indiana Pacers Central 25 57 0.305 28.0
Detroit Pistons Central 23 59 0.280 30.0
Orlando Magic Southeast 22 60 0.268 31.0

By division

West

Pacific
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Phoenix Suns 64 18 0.780
Golden State Warriors 53 29 0.646
Los Angeles Clippers 42 40 0.512
Los Angeles Lakers 33 49 0.402
Sacramento Kings 30 52 0.366
Northwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Utah Jazz 49 33 0.598
Denver Nuggets 48 34 0.585
Minnesota Timberwolves 46 36 0.561
Portland Trail Blazers 27 55 0.329
Oklahoma City Thunder 24 58 0.293
Southwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Memphis Grizzlies 56 26 0.683
Dallas Mavericks 52 30 0.634
New Orleans Pelicans 36 46 0.439
San Antonio Spurs 34 48 0.415
Houston Rockets 20 62 0.244

East

Central
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Milwaukee Bucks 51 31 0.622
Chicago Bulls 46 36 0.561
Cleveland Cavaliers 44 38 0.537
Indiana Pacers 25 57 0.305
Detroit Pistons 23 59 0.280
Atlantic
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Philadelphia 76ers 51 31 0.622
Boston Celtics 51 31 0.622
Toronto Raptors 48 34 0.585
Brooklyn Nets 44 38 0.537
New York Knicks 37 45 0.451
Southeast
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Miami Heat 53 29 0.646
Atlanta Hawks 43 39 0.524
Charlotte Hornets 43 39 0.524
Washington Wizards 35 47 0.427
Orlando Magic 22 60 0.268