NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.

Last updated at 2025-04-14 04:38 US Pacific time

Chance to win

How likely each player was to finish first, or in the top 4, as of each date of the season. Rebuilt in October 2026 with the method the 2026-27 page uses: each day, the rest of the season was simulated 100,000 times from each team's record, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence), with how good each team really is drawn at random in every simulation. Every simulated season is scored with the pool's rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

Scenarios

Every way the last open teams could have finished, and where each player would have ended up. It opens on the first date with 20 or fewer teams still undecided; pick a later date to follow the finish. Teams far from their line start on their likely side, and clicking any team changes it.

By team

By week

This plot is updated early each week with the previous week’s results.

By game number

Approaching win projection

  • If a team exceeds the win projection during the season, Wins Outcome Determined will be shown as OVER.
  • If a team is not able to win enough games to exceed the projection in the number of games remaining, Wins Outcome Determined will change to UNDER.
  • If either of these outcomes are still possible, Wins Outcome Determined will remain as Not Yet.

The purple square corresponds to the projected number of wins based on the current team winning percentage. The dotted purple line shows what this projection would look like from current outcomes.

Vegas Insider Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/ prior to the season start. The last two columns are based on games played through 2025-04-13.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2025-04-13

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2025-04-13

Chester
Mike
Ryan
Jake
Phil
Andy
Adonis
Mary

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

There was no change in scores for all players based on the outcomes of yesterday’s games.

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date Away Team Away Score Home Team Home Score
2025-04-13 Orlando Magic 105 Atlanta Hawks 117
2025-04-13 Charlotte Hornets 86 Boston Celtics 93
2025-04-13 New York Knicks 113 Brooklyn Nets 105
2025-04-13 Indiana Pacers 126 Cleveland Cavaliers 118
2025-04-13 Washington Wizards 119 Miami Heat 118
2025-04-13 Chicago Bulls 122 Philadelphia 76ers 102
2025-04-13 Detroit Pistons 133 Milwaukee Bucks 140
2025-04-13 Denver Nuggets 126 Houston Rockets 111
2025-04-13 Dallas Mavericks 97 Memphis Grizzlies 132
2025-04-13 Utah Jazz 105 Minnesota Timberwolves 116
2025-04-13 Oklahoma City Thunder 115 New Orleans Pelicans 100
2025-04-13 Toronto Raptors 118 San Antonio Spurs 125
2025-04-13 LA Clippers 124 Golden State Warriors 119
2025-04-13 Los Angeles Lakers 81 Portland Trail Blazers 109
2025-04-13 Phoenix Suns 98 Sacramento Kings 109

Current standings

By conference

Note that tie breakers to determine playoff seeds are not currently set.

Western

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Oklahoma City Thunder Northwest 68 14 0.829
Houston Rockets Southwest 52 30 0.634 16.0
Denver Nuggets Northwest 50 32 0.610 18.0
Los Angeles Clippers Pacific 50 32 0.610 18.0
Los Angeles Lakers Pacific 50 32 0.610 18.0
Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest 49 33 0.598 19.0
Golden State Warriors Pacific 48 34 0.585 20.0
Memphis Grizzlies Southwest 48 34 0.585 20.0
Sacramento Kings Pacific 40 42 0.488 28.0
Dallas Mavericks Southwest 39 43 0.476 29.0
Phoenix Suns Pacific 36 46 0.439 32.0
Portland Trail Blazers Northwest 36 46 0.439 32.0
San Antonio Spurs Southwest 34 48 0.415 34.0
New Orleans Pelicans Southwest 21 61 0.256 47.0
Utah Jazz Northwest 17 65 0.207 51.0

Eastern

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Cleveland Cavaliers Central 64 18 0.780
Boston Celtics Atlantic 61 21 0.744 3.0
New York Knicks Atlantic 51 31 0.622 13.0
Indiana Pacers Central 50 32 0.610 14.0
Milwaukee Bucks Central 48 34 0.585 16.0
Detroit Pistons Central 44 38 0.537 20.0
Orlando Magic Southeast 41 41 0.500 23.0
Atlanta Hawks Southeast 40 42 0.488 24.0
Chicago Bulls Central 39 43 0.476 25.0
Miami Heat Southeast 37 45 0.451 27.0
Toronto Raptors Atlantic 30 52 0.366 34.0
Brooklyn Nets Atlantic 26 56 0.317 38.0
Philadelphia 76ers Atlantic 24 58 0.293 40.0
Charlotte Hornets Southeast 19 63 0.232 45.0
Washington Wizards Southeast 18 64 0.220 46.0

By division

West

Pacific
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Los Angeles Clippers 50 32 0.610
Los Angeles Lakers 50 32 0.610
Golden State Warriors 48 34 0.585
Sacramento Kings 40 42 0.488
Phoenix Suns 36 46 0.439
Northwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Oklahoma City Thunder 68 14 0.829
Denver Nuggets 50 32 0.610
Minnesota Timberwolves 49 33 0.598
Portland Trail Blazers 36 46 0.439
Utah Jazz 17 65 0.207
Southwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Houston Rockets 52 30 0.634
Memphis Grizzlies 48 34 0.585
Dallas Mavericks 39 43 0.476
San Antonio Spurs 34 48 0.415
New Orleans Pelicans 21 61 0.256

East

Central
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Cleveland Cavaliers 64 18 0.780
Indiana Pacers 50 32 0.610
Milwaukee Bucks 48 34 0.585
Detroit Pistons 44 38 0.537
Chicago Bulls 39 43 0.476
Atlantic
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Boston Celtics 61 21 0.744
New York Knicks 51 31 0.622
Toronto Raptors 30 52 0.366
Brooklyn Nets 26 56 0.317
Philadelphia 76ers 24 58 0.293
Southeast
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Orlando Magic 41 41 0.500
Atlanta Hawks 40 42 0.488
Miami Heat 37 45 0.451
Charlotte Hornets 19 63 0.232
Washington Wizards 18 64 0.220