NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.
Bar: the base case, each team centered on its Vegas line. Dots: what happens if the whole league runs two wins under or two wins over its lines. Dashed line: an equal share.
Overs is the pick count; the wager columns add up the points bet on each side (every entry bets 315). Points range is the middle 80% of simulated final points (10th to 90th percentile).
| Player | Win | Last | Avg finish | Overs | Over pts | Under pts | Points range |
|---|
Sway is how far the chances of who wins move between that team going Over and going Under (0 means nobody's chances change). Teams where everyone picked the same side barely matter, even with big wagers. Cells show each pick and its wager.
For each team, the side that raises this player's chance of winning the pool, and by how many percentage points. Usually that is the player's own pick, but not always: when rivals bet more on the same side, the team hitting helps them more.
| Team | Root for | Win chance swing | Own pick | Wager | Note |
|---|
Every case where a player gains more from their own pick missing than hitting.
| Player | Team | Picked | Wager | Root for | Swing |
|---|
Correlation of signed wagers (Over positive, Under negative), with the count of teams picked the same way. Similar entries rise and fall together, so they mostly compete with each other for the same outcomes.
Players placed so that distance reflects how differently they bet (cosine similarity of signed wagers). Close together means similar picks and wagers; the axes themselves have no units.
Contested points: wager points on the teams where the two disagree. Each of those results moves one up and the other down.
| Pair | Same side | Correlation | Contested pts | First beats second |
|---|
Every pick, with teams sorted from the group's strongest Over lean to its strongest Under lean (consensus is the average signed wager). Players are ordered so similar entries sit next to each other.
Each player's 10 teams furthest from everyone else: their signed wager minus the average of the other entries' signed wagers. A bar to the right means more Over than the group; to the left, more Under. The label shows the player's own pick.