Preseason preview. Rooting guide. NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.

Last updated at 2026-11-09 01:00 US Pacific time

Chance to win

Each day, the rest of the season is simulated 100,000 times. A team’s remaining games are drawn from its record so far, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence). Each simulation also draws how good the team really is, since a record is an uncertain guide; tested on 2021-22 to 2025-26, leaving that out made the chances too confident. Every simulated season is scored with the pool’s rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

How the simulations work

Each day’s chances come from 100,000 simulated finishes to the season. In each one:

  1. Estimate how good each team is. Its record so far is blended with its Vegas line, with the line counted as 20 games played at the line’s pace (a 49.5-win line is a .604 pace, so it adds about 12 wins and 8 losses). Early on the line dominates; by spring the record does.
  2. Allow for doubt about that estimate. Rather than treat the blend as exact, each simulation draws the team’s true win rate from a beta distribution centered on it, with the evidence counted at half weight. In a test on 2021-22 to 2025-26, a fixed rate gave teams 88% chances to finish Over that came true only 69% of the time; this step fixed most of that.
  3. Play out the remaining games. Each remaining game is won at that drawn rate. Opponents, home court, and rest are not modeled.
  4. Grade every pick and rank the entries. A team is Over if its final wins beat the line. Entries gain their wager on a right pick and lose it on a wrong one, then rank by points, number right, and 15s right. Entries still tied share the place.

A player’s chance to finish first (or top 4) is the share of the 100,000 finishes where they do. Every date reuses the same random draws, so day-to-day changes come from games played, not from simulation noise.

How it has done: run weekly on 2021-22 to 2025-26, readings of 70% to 90% ended in first place (the playoffs’ top seed) only 3 of 13 times, and players under 1% finished first about 4% of the time (Phil finished first in 2025-26 from 0.3%). Read big leads as less safe than they look.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

The top 4 qualify for the Over/Under playoffs.

Scenarios

The scenario explorer opens once 20 or fewer teams are still undecided, usually in mid-March. It lists every way those teams can finish and where each player ends up. 30 teams are open now.

By team

By week

Each team’s wins above (or below) the pace it needs to beat its Vegas line, as of each Sunday. Zero is exactly on pace; teams are ordered from furthest above pace to furthest below, with the line in parentheses. This plot is updated early each week with the previous week’s results (starting on Monday, October 26, 2026).

Over, clinched Over, on pace Under, on pace Under, clinched

By game number

Each team’s wins above (or below) the pace it needs to beat its Vegas line, after every game. A team on pace for exactly its line sits at zero; the line is in parentheses, and teams are ordered from furthest above pace to furthest below. Pale points can still change; solid points are clinched.

Over, clinched Over, on pace Under, on pace Under, clinched

Approaching win projection

  • Once a team passes its line, it has clinched OVER (solid blue).
  • Once a team can no longer reach its line in the games left, it has clinched UNDER (solid red).
  • Until then, pale blue or pale red shows which side it is on pace for.

The violet square is the number of wins the team would finish with at its current winning percentage, and the dotted violet line is that path from today. The horizontal line is the Vegas line, also shown in parentheses.

Over, clinched Over, on pace Under, on pace Under, clinched

Vegas Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled prior to the season start. The last two columns are based on games played through 2026-11-08.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2026-11-08

The line under fourth place is the cutoff for the Over/Under playoffs. Ties are broken by picks correct, then 15s correct, then 14s, 13s, and 12s. Each day’s earlier standings are in the Chance to win charts.

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2026-11-08

Phil
Mike
Ryan
Chester
Andy
Jake
Mary
Adonis

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

There was no change in scores for all players based on the outcomes of yesterday’s games.

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date Away Team Away Score Home Team Home Score
2026-11-08 Philadelphia 76ers 127 Chicago Bulls 121
2026-11-08 Los Angeles Lakers 121 Detroit Pistons 116
2026-11-08 Utah Jazz 100 Minnesota Timberwolves 115
2026-11-08 Brooklyn Nets 93 Dallas Mavericks 130
2026-11-08 Boston Celtics 117 Milwaukee Bucks 97
2026-11-08 New Orleans Pelicans 123 LA Clippers 139
2026-11-08 Miami Heat 114 Sacramento Kings 108

Today’s games

Game Date Start Time (Eastern) Away Team Home Team
2026-11-09 7:00p Los Angeles Lakers Atlanta Hawks
2026-11-09 7:00p Cleveland Cavaliers Charlotte Hornets
2026-11-09 7:00p Washington Wizards Detroit Pistons
2026-11-09 7:30p Memphis Grizzlies Toronto Raptors
2026-11-09 8:00p Indiana Pacers Dallas Mavericks
2026-11-09 8:30p Denver Nuggets Houston Rockets
2026-11-09 9:00p San Antonio Spurs Phoenix Suns
2026-11-09 10:00p New Orleans Pelicans Golden State Warriors
  • If the Washington Wizards win today, they change from UNDER to OVER.
  • If the Toronto Raptors win today, they change from UNDER to OVER.
  • If the Houston Rockets win today, the Denver Nuggets change from OVER to UNDER.
  • If the Phoenix Suns win today, the San Antonio Spurs change from OVER to UNDER.

Current standings

By conference

Playoff seeds are determined using the NBA’s official tiebreaker procedures. Seeds 1-6 earn direct playoff spots; seeds 7-10 enter the Play-In Tournament. When all tiebreakers are exhausted, alphabetical order is used as a stand-in for the random drawing specified in the rules.

Legend: Clinched #N = seed locked in  |  Clinched #N or better = guaranteed seed N or better  |  Either #X or #Y = seed is one of a few remaining options  |  pi = clinched play-in spot  |  o = eliminated from playoff contention  |  e = eliminated from postseason

Western

Seed Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back Status
1 Los Angeles Lakers Pacific 9 2 0.818
Playoff
2 Oklahoma City Thunder Northwest 8 2 0.800 0.5 Playoff
3 San Antonio Spurs Southwest 8 2 0.800 0.5 Playoff
4 Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest 8 3 0.727 1.0 Playoff
5 Golden State Warriors Pacific 7 3 0.700 1.5 Playoff
6 Houston Rockets Southwest 7 3 0.700 1.5 Playoff
7 Memphis Grizzlies Southwest 6 3 0.667 2.0 Play-In
8 Portland Trail Blazers Northwest 6 3 0.667 2.0 Play-In
9 Denver Nuggets Northwest 5 3 0.625 2.5 Play-In
10 Dallas Mavericks Southwest 6 4 0.600 2.5 Play-In
11 New Orleans Pelicans Southwest 4 6 0.400 4.5
12 Phoenix Suns Pacific 3 5 0.375 4.5
13 Los Angeles Clippers Pacific 2 7 0.222 6.0
14 Sacramento Kings Pacific 1 9 0.100 7.5
15 Utah Jazz Northwest 1 9 0.100 7.5

Eastern

Seed Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back Status
1 Philadelphia 76ers Atlantic 9 2 0.818
Playoff
2 Boston Celtics Atlantic 8 2 0.800 0.5 Playoff
3 Detroit Pistons Central 6 3 0.667 2.0 Playoff
4 Atlanta Hawks Southeast 7 4 0.636 2.0 Playoff
5 New York Knicks Atlantic 5 4 0.556 3.0 Playoff
6 Toronto Raptors Atlantic 5 4 0.556 3.0 Playoff
7 Cleveland Cavaliers Central 5 5 0.500 3.5 Play-In
8 Miami Heat Southeast 4 6 0.400 4.5 Play-In
9 Washington Wizards Southeast 4 6 0.400 4.5 Play-In
10 Charlotte Hornets Southeast 3 7 0.300 5.5 Play-In
11 Indiana Pacers Central 3 7 0.300 5.5
12 Orlando Magic Southeast 2 7 0.222 6.0
13 Brooklyn Nets Atlantic 2 8 0.200 6.5
14 Chicago Bulls Central 1 8 0.111 7.0
15 Milwaukee Bucks Central 1 9 0.100 7.5

By division

West

Pacific
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Los Angeles Lakers 9 2 0.818
Golden State Warriors 7 3 0.700
Phoenix Suns 3 5 0.375
Los Angeles Clippers 2 7 0.222
Sacramento Kings 1 9 0.100
Northwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Oklahoma City Thunder 8 2 0.800
Minnesota Timberwolves 8 3 0.727
Portland Trail Blazers 6 3 0.667
Denver Nuggets 5 3 0.625
Utah Jazz 1 9 0.100
Southwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
San Antonio Spurs 8 2 0.800
Houston Rockets 7 3 0.700
Memphis Grizzlies 6 3 0.667
Dallas Mavericks 6 4 0.600
New Orleans Pelicans 4 6 0.400

East

Central
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Detroit Pistons 6 3 0.667
Cleveland Cavaliers 5 5 0.500
Indiana Pacers 3 7 0.300
Chicago Bulls 1 8 0.111
Milwaukee Bucks 1 9 0.100
Atlantic
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Philadelphia 76ers 9 2 0.818
Boston Celtics 8 2 0.800
New York Knicks 5 4 0.556
Toronto Raptors 5 4 0.556
Brooklyn Nets 2 8 0.200
Southeast
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Atlanta Hawks 7 4 0.636
Miami Heat 4 6 0.400
Washington Wizards 4 6 0.400
Charlotte Hornets 3 7 0.300
Orlando Magic 2 7 0.222