NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.

Last updated at 2024-04-15 00:36:13 US Pacific time

Chance to win

How likely each player was to finish first, or in the top 4, as of each date of the season. Rebuilt in October 2026 with the method the 2026-27 page uses: each day, the rest of the season was simulated 100,000 times from each team's record, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence), with how good each team really is drawn at random in every simulation. Every simulated season is scored with the pool's rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

Scenarios

Every way the last open teams could have finished, and where each player would have ended up. It opens on the first date with 20 or fewer teams still undecided; pick a later date to follow the finish. Teams far from their line start on their likely side, and clicking any team changes it.

By team

By week

This plot is updated early each week with the previous week’s results.

By game number

Approaching win projection

  • If a team exceeds the win projection during the season, Wins Outcome Determined will be shown as OVER.
  • If a team is not able to win enough games to exceed the projection in the number of games remaining, Wins Outcome Determined will change to UNDER.
  • If either of these outcomes are still possible, Wins Outcome Determined will remain as Not Yet.

The purple square corresponds to the projected number of wins based on the current team winning percentage. The dotted purple line shows what this projection would look like from current outcomes.

Vegas Insider Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/ prior to the season start. The last two columns are based on games played through 2024-04-14.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2024-04-14

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2024-04-14

Chester
Adonis
Mary
Andy
Mike
Ryan
Jake
Phil

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

There was no change in scores for all players based on the outcomes of yesterday’s games.

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date Away Team Away Score Home Team Home Score
2024-04-14 Washington Wizards 122 Boston Celtics 132
2024-04-14 Charlotte Hornets 120 Cleveland Cavaliers 110
2024-04-14 Atlanta Hawks 115 Indiana Pacers 157
2024-04-14 Toronto Raptors 103 Miami Heat 118
2024-04-14 Chicago Bulls 119 New York Knicks 120
2024-04-14 Milwaukee Bucks 88 Orlando Magic 113
2024-04-14 Brooklyn Nets 86 Philadelphia 76ers 107
2024-04-14 Denver Nuggets 126 Memphis Grizzlies 111
2024-04-14 Phoenix Suns 125 Minnesota Timberwolves 106
2024-04-14 Los Angeles Lakers 124 New Orleans Pelicans 108
2024-04-14 Dallas Mavericks 86 Oklahoma City Thunder 135
2024-04-14 Detroit Pistons 95 San Antonio Spurs 123
2024-04-14 Utah Jazz 116 Golden State Warriors 123
2024-04-14 Houston Rockets 116 LA Clippers 105
2024-04-14 Portland Trail Blazers 82 Sacramento Kings 121

Current standings

By conference

Note that tie breakers to determine playoff seeds are not currently set.

Western

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back Remaining Opponent Winning Percentage
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
:—- :——– —-: ——: ———–: ———-: :————————————-

Eastern

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back Remaining Opponent Winning Percentage
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
:—- :——– —-: ——: ———–: ———-: :————————————-

By division

West

Pacific
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
NA NA NA NA
:—- —-: ——: ———–:
Northwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
NA NA NA NA
:—- —-: ——: ———–:
Southwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
NA NA NA NA
:—- —-: ——: ———–:

East

Central
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
NA NA NA NA
:—- —-: ——: ———–:
Atlantic
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
NA NA NA NA
:—- —-: ——: ———–:
Southeast
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
NA NA NA NA
:—- —-: ——: ———–: