NBA over/under pool. Chester Ismay has tracked it here since 2020-21 and run it since 2025-26.

Last updated at 2023-04-10 05:25:58 US Pacific time

Chance to win

How likely each player was to finish first, or in the top 4, as of each date of the season. Rebuilt in October 2026 with the method the 2026-27 page uses: each day, the rest of the season was simulated 100,000 times from each team's record, pulled toward its Vegas line (the line counts as 20 games of evidence), with how good each team really is drawn at random in every simulation. Every simulated season is scored with the pool's rules and tiebreakers. The dotted line is an even share.

Chance to finish first

Chance to make the top 4

Scenarios

Every way the last open teams could have finished, and where each player would have ended up. It opens on the first date with 20 or fewer teams still undecided; pick a later date to follow the finish. Teams far from their line start on their likely side, and clicking any team changes it.

By team

By week

This plot is updated early each week with the previous week’s results.

By game number

Approaching win projection

  • If a team exceeds the win projection during the season, Wins Outcome Determined will be shown as OVER.
  • If a team is not able to win enough games to exceed the projection in the number of games remaining, Wins Outcome Determined will change to UNDER.
  • If either of these outcomes are still possible, Wins Outcome Determined will remain as Not Yet.

The purple square corresponds to the projected number of wins based on the current team winning percentage. The dotted purple line shows what this projection would look like from current outcomes.

Vegas Insider Win Projections and Wins Needed

Win Projection was pulled from https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/ prior to the season start. The last two columns are based on games played through 2023-04-09.

Projected points for each player

Games through 2023-04-09

Point wagers by player with OVER(↑) / UNDER(↓) choice (highlighted by outcome determined)

Point explanations by team for 2023-04-09

Jake
Phil
Andy
Mike
Jenelle
Mary
Ryan
Chester
Adonis

All together

Small multiples

Changes in projected points since yesterday

There was no change in scores for all players based on the outcomes of yesterday’s games.

Yesterday’s scores

Game Date Away Team Away Score Home Team Home Score
2023-04-09 Atlanta Hawks 114 Boston Celtics 120
2023-04-09 Philadelphia 76ers 134 Brooklyn Nets 105
2023-04-09 Charlotte Hornets 106 Cleveland Cavaliers 95
2023-04-09 Orlando Magic 110 Miami Heat 123
2023-04-09 Indiana Pacers 141 New York Knicks 136
2023-04-09 Milwaukee Bucks 105 Toronto Raptors 121
2023-04-09 Houston Rockets 114 Washington Wizards 109
2023-04-09 Detroit Pistons 81 Chicago Bulls 103
2023-04-09 San Antonio Spurs 138 Dallas Mavericks 117
2023-04-09 New Orleans Pelicans 108 Minnesota Timberwolves 113
2023-04-09 Memphis Grizzlies 100 Oklahoma City Thunder 115
2023-04-09 Sacramento Kings 95 Denver Nuggets 109
2023-04-09 Utah Jazz 117 Los Angeles Lakers 128
2023-04-09 LA Clippers 119 Phoenix Suns 114
2023-04-09 Golden State Warriors 157 Portland Trail Blazers 101

Current standings

By conference

Note that tie breakers to determine playoff seeds are not currently set.

Western

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Denver Nuggets Northwest 53 29 0.646
Memphis Grizzlies Southwest 51 31 0.622 2.0
Sacramento Kings Pacific 48 34 0.585 5.0
Phoenix Suns Pacific 45 37 0.549 8.0
Golden State Warriors Pacific 44 38 0.537 9.0
Los Angeles Clippers Pacific 44 38 0.537 9.0
Los Angeles Lakers Pacific 43 39 0.524 10.0
Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest 42 40 0.512 11.0
New Orleans Pelicans Southwest 42 40 0.512 11.0
Oklahoma City Thunder Northwest 40 42 0.488 13.0
Dallas Mavericks Southwest 38 44 0.463 15.0
Utah Jazz Northwest 37 45 0.451 16.0
Portland Trail Blazers Northwest 33 49 0.402 20.0
Houston Rockets Southwest 22 60 0.268 31.0
San Antonio Spurs Southwest 22 60 0.268 31.0

Eastern

Team Division Wins Losses Winning Pct Games Back
Milwaukee Bucks Central 58 24 0.707
Boston Celtics Atlantic 57 25 0.695 1.0
Philadelphia 76ers Atlantic 54 28 0.659 4.0
Cleveland Cavaliers Central 51 31 0.622 7.0
New York Knicks Atlantic 47 35 0.573 11.0
Brooklyn Nets Atlantic 45 37 0.549 13.0
Miami Heat Southeast 44 38 0.537 14.0
Atlanta Hawks Southeast 41 41 0.500 17.0
Toronto Raptors Atlantic 41 41 0.500 17.0
Chicago Bulls Central 40 42 0.488 18.0
Indiana Pacers Central 35 47 0.427 23.0
Washington Wizards Southeast 35 47 0.427 23.0
Orlando Magic Southeast 34 48 0.415 24.0
Charlotte Hornets Southeast 27 55 0.329 31.0
Detroit Pistons Central 17 65 0.207 41.0

By division

West

Pacific
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Sacramento Kings 48 34 0.585
Phoenix Suns 45 37 0.549
Golden State Warriors 44 38 0.537
Los Angeles Clippers 44 38 0.537
Los Angeles Lakers 43 39 0.524
Northwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Denver Nuggets 53 29 0.646
Minnesota Timberwolves 42 40 0.512
Oklahoma City Thunder 40 42 0.488
Utah Jazz 37 45 0.451
Portland Trail Blazers 33 49 0.402
Southwest
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Memphis Grizzlies 51 31 0.622
New Orleans Pelicans 42 40 0.512
Dallas Mavericks 38 44 0.463
Houston Rockets 22 60 0.268
San Antonio Spurs 22 60 0.268

East

Central
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Milwaukee Bucks 58 24 0.707
Cleveland Cavaliers 51 31 0.622
Chicago Bulls 40 42 0.488
Indiana Pacers 35 47 0.427
Detroit Pistons 17 65 0.207
Atlantic
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Boston Celtics 57 25 0.695
Philadelphia 76ers 54 28 0.659
New York Knicks 47 35 0.573
Brooklyn Nets 45 37 0.549
Toronto Raptors 41 41 0.500
Southeast
Team Wins Losses Winning Pct
Miami Heat 44 38 0.537
Atlanta Hawks 41 41 0.500
Washington Wizards 35 47 0.427
Orlando Magic 34 48 0.415
Charlotte Hornets 27 55 0.329