"You have to establish the run." Five seasons, 2021 to 2025.

Nine questions about establishing the run, each answered by the one tool from every play of 2021 through 2025. Yellow is the fourth of team-games that ran most, blue the fourth that ran least, and the yellow stretch between them is the gap in games won.

Does not hold as stated

Across all games, running early goes with an edge of 6.9 points. But a team that was ahead at halftime ran more in the first half too. Hold the halftime score within 3 points and the edge is -9.0: the teams that ran most early won 46.3%, the teams that ran least 55.3%. Running late goes with a gap of 75.4 points, and teams that are ahead run to use the clock. These plays show no edge for establishing the run; they show one for being ahead.

6.9points early: the first-half gap

-9.0points early, games within 3 at halftime

75.4points late: the second-half gap

The verdict follows a rule written in season-sheet.mjs, so you can disagree with it. It reads the first half of games within 3 points at halftime: under 100 team-games per group is too few to rule; a gap under 5 points does not hold as stated; a gap of 10 or more holds in part; between the two is mixed. This is the page's rule, not the agent's. Every number is the tool's.

The whole game

Every rush and pass, start to finish, overtime included.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025

19.2%

77.7%

77.7% ran most, 19.2% ran least, a gap of 58.6 points. 710 team-games in each group, 1,424 games.

First half only

"Establish" means early.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --half 1

46.1%

53.0%

53.0% ran most, 46.1% ran least, a gap of 6.9 points. 710 team-games in each group, 1,424 games.

Second half only

Who is running now?

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --half 2

11.7%

87.0%

87.0% ran most, 11.7% ran least, a gap of 75.4 points. 710 team-games in each group, 1,424 games.

First half, games within 3 points at halftime

Take away who was ahead at the break.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --half 1 --halftime-margin 3

55.3%

46.3%

46.3% ran most, 55.3% ran least, a gap of -9.0 points. 188 team-games in each group, 379 games.

First half, score within 8 points

Early, and one score apart.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --half 1 --margin 8

52.6%

53.2%

53.2% ran most, 52.6% ran least, a gap of 0.6 points. 656 team-games in each group, 1,424 games.

Second half, score within 8 points

Late, but still a game.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --half 2 --margin 8

35.5%

73.2%

73.2% ran most, 35.5% ran least, a gap of 37.8 points. 437 team-games in each group, 1,093 games.

Second half, score within 3 points

Late, and a field goal apart.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --half 2 --margin 3

52.4%

70.0%

70.0% ran most, 52.4% ran least, a gap of 17.6 points. 233 team-games in each group, 831 games.

Regular season only, first half

Leave the playoffs out.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --type REG --half 1

46.1%

53.0%

53.0% ran most, 46.1% ran least, a gap of 6.9 points. 677 team-games in each group, 1,359 games.

Playoffs only, the whole game

Thirteen games a season, 65 in five.

node ./query-plays.mjs --seasons 2021-2025 --type POST

15.6%

78.1%

78.1% ran most, 15.6% ran least, a gap of 62.5 points. 32 team-games in each group, 65 games.

Not on this sheet: why. Every gap here is an association between running and winning in the plays kept. It does not say which one causes the other. Teams that are ahead run to use the clock, so winning can cause running.