"You have to establish the run." Change one filter and check.
Take every team in every NFL game, work out what share of its plays were runs, and sort those team-games into four equal groups. How often did each group win? The answer depends on which plays you count, so every filter is listed with the plays left after it. This is the same output the agent reads.
Loading the tool's answersThe bar is a scale of games won, from 0% at the left to 100% at the right, with a line every ten and a heavy line at 50%. The blue marker is the win rate of the teams that ran least, the yellow marker the win rate of the teams that ran most, and the hatched stretch between them is the gap. The two short gray marks are the middle groups. The two colors are the lines a TV broadcast paints on the field, the line of scrimmage and the line to gain.
The filters, in order
The four groups
| Group | Share of plays that were runs | Team-games | Wins | Win rate |
|---|
Not in this output: why. A gap is an association between running and winning in the plays kept. It does not say which one causes the other. Teams that are ahead run to use the clock, so winning can cause running.