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Every NBA and WNBA playoff series

Is Game 1 three-point shooting worse than the rest of a playoff series?

Broadcasters say it every spring: teams come out cold in Game 1, shake off the layoff, and shoot better once they know the opponent. This study checks every NBA playoff series since 1984-85 and every WNBA series with more than one game, comparing each series' Game 1 with the games after it. Game 1 accuracy holds up fine. What changes is volume: NBA teams take a smaller share of their shots from three in Game 1, and that share keeps climbing as the series goes on. Game 1 also has the fewest fouls of any game, in both leagues.

NBA accuracy
−0.03
Game 1 three-point percentage minus Games 2 on, in points, across 630 series (95% interval −0.87 to +0.82).
WNBA accuracy
+0.21
The same comparison across 171 series (−1.19 to +1.61). No Game 1 dip.
NBA volume
−1.32
Points of field-goal attempts taken from three, Game 1 against Games 2 on (−1.61 to −1.03).
Fouls in Game 1
−1.05
NBA fouls per 100 possessions against the series average (WNBA −1.04).
The question

A fair comparison inside each series

Comparing Game 1s across the league with later games would mix in which teams are still playing: by Game 7 only close series remain. So every comparison here stays inside one series, with the same two teams. Both teams' threes are pooled for Game 1 and for Games 2 on, and the difference is averaged over series. Because Games 6 and 7 exist only in close series, the same estimate is repeated against Game 2 alone, which every series has. A Game 1 effect has to show up in both versions to count.

Why every comparison stays inside one series1. Later games come from fewer seriesNBA series since 1984-85. The blueband is the series still going at eachgame; the gray piece peels off theseries that ended in that game.G1630G2G347 ended in G3G4135 ended in G4G5182 ended in G5G6157 ended in G6G7109 played a G7Every series has a Game 1, but only109 of 630 reach a Game 7, and thoseare the close ones. A league-wide Game1 against Game 7 would comparedifferent series.2. Compare each series with itselfBoth teams' made and attempted threes, pooled:G1G2G3G4G5G6G7Game 1 against Games 2 onGame 1's three-point percentage minus the rest ofthe series', then averaged over 630 series.−0.03 points (−0.87 to +0.82)G1G2G3G4G5G6G7Game 1 against Game 2 aloneEvery series has a Game 2, so this check has noclose-series tilt.−0.32 points (−1.36 to +0.73)Counting every NBA three together instead: Game 1shit 35.11%, later games 34.83%.
Why every comparison stays inside one series1. Later games come from fewer seriesNBA series since 1984-85. The blue band is theseries still going at each game; the gray piecepeels off the series that ended in that game.G1630G2G347 ended in G3G4135 ended in G4G5182 ended in G5G6157 ended in G6G7109 played a G7Every series has a Game 1, but only 109 of 630reach a Game 7, and those are the close ones. Aleague-wide Game 1 against Game 7 would comparedifferent series.2. Compare each series with itselfBoth teams' made and attempted threes, pooled:G1G2G3G4G5G6G7Game 1 against Games 2 onGame 1's three-point percentage minus the rest ofthe series', then averaged over 630 series.−0.03 points (−0.87 to +0.82)G1G2G3G4G5G6G7Game 1 against Game 2 aloneEvery series has a Game 2, so this check has noclose-series tilt.−0.32 points (−1.36 to +0.73)Counting every NBA three together instead: Game 1shit 35.11%, later games 34.83%.
Why the study compares each series only with itself. The flow: every NBA series has a Game 1, but series peel off as they end and only the close ones reach Games 6 and 7, so a league-wide comparison by game number would mix different series. The strips: each series' Game 1 is set against its own later games, and again against its Game 2 alone. Both differences sit near zero.

The analysis plan was written down and fixed before any Game 1 number was computed. It was implemented twice, in Python and in R, and the two agree on every output cell.

The answer

Game 1 accuracy is not worse

Game 1 minus later games in the same series, in percentage points with 95% intervals. Accuracy sits on zero in both leagues and on both comparisons: the NBA is −0.03 against Games 2 on and −0.32 against Game 2 alone, the WNBA +0.21 and +0.58. NBA attempt rate is lower in Game 1 on both comparisons, −1.32 and −1.02. WNBA attempt rate is not distinguishable from zero.

Counting every three-pointer together instead of averaging series, NBA Game 1s actually shot a little better than later games: 35.11% against 34.83%. Nothing here supports a cold Game 1.

Through a series

Volume climbs, game by game

Following every rate through the series, with each team measured against its own average for that series, shows the volume change is not a Game 1 quirk. In the NBA the share of shots from three rises steadily from Game 1 to Game 7, and it still rises when only series that went the distance are kept, so the climb is not a change in which series are present.

Share of a team's shots taken from three, against that team's average for the series, by game number. NBA Game 1 sits at −1.07 points and Game 7 at +1.01. The WNBA has no trend.

One natural explanation is that the team behind in the series starts shooting its way back. The data say the opposite: from Game 2 on, the team trailing in the series takes relatively fewer threes than the leader, by −1.07 points in the NBA (−1.35 to −0.80) and −2.31 in the WNBA. Trailing teams have also just lost games, so this sorts teams by recent results rather than showing intent.

Fouls per 100 possessions against each team's series average, by game number. Game 1 is the low point in both leagues (NBA −1.05, WNBA −1.04) and Game 2 jumps back up. Free-throw rate follows the same pattern (NBA −2.23 points in Game 1).

Fewer fouls in Game 1 can mean fewer called or fewer committed; box scores cannot separate the two.

Across eras

The game changed around Game 1

The NBA of 1984-85 barely used the three: in that season's Game 1s, 4.3% of shots came from beyond the arc. By 2025-26 it was 40.1%. Game 1 and later games rose together, and accuracy in Game 1 kept pace with accuracy later in the series the whole way. The lines cross back and forth from season to season in both leagues, and neither sits consistently below the other.

Three-point percentage by season, every series pooled. Game 1 is solid, Games 2 on dashed. The two lines trade places from season to season in both leagues. WNBA seasons hold only a few multi-game series, so its lines jump more.

Split by decade, the Game 1 accuracy gap includes zero in every NBA decade. The one WNBA decade that clears zero is the 1990s, at −6.55 points, but that rests on just 6 series from the league's first two postseasons.

Game 1 minus Games 2 on, three-point percentage, by decade, with 95% intervals. Every NBA decade includes zero, from −1.16 in the 1980s to +0.82 in the 2010s. The WNBA's 1990s point comes from 6 series.

Volume is where the eras differ. NBA teams took a smaller share of their shots from three in Game 1 than in the rest of the series in every season from 1984-85 through 2019-20. The gap was −1.43 points in the 1990s and −1.79 in both the 2000s and the 2010s. In the 2020s it shrinks to −0.30 (−1.14 to +0.54), and some recent seasons reverse it. The decade is not over, so this is a narrowing to watch rather than a settled change. The WNBA shows no decade with a volume gap that holds up beyond its first two seasons.

Share of field-goal attempts taken from three, by season, every series pooled. Game 1 is solid, Games 2 on dashed. The NBA's Game 1 line sits under its later-games line every season through 2019-20, and the two meet in the 2020s.
Game 1 minus Games 2 on, share of shots from three, by decade, with 95% intervals. The NBA gap is −1.79 points in the 2000s and 2010s and −0.30 in the 2020s, an interval that includes zero.
Stakes and rest

Neither the round nor the layoff changes it

No round, from the first round to the Finals, shows a Game 1 accuracy gap that holds on both comparisons. The NBA's lower Game 1 volume appears in the first round (−1.60), the conference finals (−1.56), and the Finals (−1.65), so it is not about stakes. Rest gaps, where one team swept and the other went long, show at most a hint of rust in the NBA: across 337 series with a gap, the more-rested team's Game 1 shooting is relatively worse by 2.49 points (−4.92 to −0.06), but no single size of gap clears zero on its own. Rest also arrives with recent form, so this stays a hint.

Game 1 minus Games 2 on, by round, with 95% intervals. Darker points are the share of shots from three, lighter points three-point percentage. Every accuracy point includes zero. The NBA's volume gap clears zero in every round but the second.
The more-rested team's own Game 1 minus its own later games, minus the same for the less-rested team, by the size of the rest gap, NBA. The all-gaps point sits just below zero, but no single gap size clears it.
Follow-ups

Winning Game 1 matters; outshooting in it does not

The team that shoots better from three in Game 1 goes on to win the series 59.8% of the time in the NBA. But that team usually won Game 1 as well, and Game 1 winners take most series. With the Game 1 result held fixed, the edge disappears: NBA Game 1 winners took the series 76.7% of the time when they also outshot their opponent from three, and 76.8% when they did not. In the WNBA the difference is +7.9 points, with an interval from −6.8 to +22.7 across 168 series.

Outshooting in Game 1 and winning the series614 NBA seriesWhich team shot the better three-point percentage in Game 1? (16 more series had nobetter shooter and are left out.)It also won Game 1420 series76.7%won by the better shooterHere the better shooter is the Game 1winner.It lost Game 1194 series23.2%won by the better shooterThe Game 1 winner, the worse shooter,took the other 76.8%.Together the better Game 1 shooter wins 59.8% of series. That share is mostly the Game 1result: the Game 1 winner takes about 77% of series whether or not it also outshot theother team.
Outshooting in Game 1 and winning the series614 NBA seriesWhich team shot the better three-pointpercentage in Game 1? (16 more series hadno better shooter and are left out.)It also won Game 1420 series76.7%won by the better shooterHere the better shooter is the Game 1 winner.It lost Game 1194 series23.2%won by the better shooterThe Game 1 winner, the worse shooter, tookthe other 76.8%.Together the better Game 1 shooter wins 59.8%of series. That share is mostly the Game 1result: the Game 1 winner takes about 77% ofseries whether or not it also outshot theother team.
Where the better Game 1 shooter's series record comes from. In most series that team also won Game 1, and Game 1 winners take the series 76.7% of the time when they also outshot the other team and 76.8% when they did not. Split by the Game 1 result, the shooting edge adds nothing.
Share of series won by the Game 1 winner, split by whether it also outshot its opponent from three in that game, with 95% intervals. The NBA's two shares are level. The WNBA's differ, but their intervals overlap widely.

The 2020 bubble had no Game 1 foul dip

The NBA's 2020 playoffs, played in one arena without fans, are the exception to the Game 1 foul pattern. Game 1 ran +0.63 fouls per 100 possessions against the series average (−0.35 to +1.61), against −1.09 in every other season. That rests on 15 series, so it is a lead to follow rather than a finding. Otherwise the dip is steady: it appears in every NBA decade, from −1.53 in the 1980s to −0.64 in the 2010s, and in best-of-5 and best-of-7 series alike.

NBA Game 1 fouls per 100 possessions against the series average, with 95% intervals. Every decade sits below zero. The 2020 single-site playoffs are the one point above it, with the widest interval, from a single season of series.

The same officials whistle Game 1 more lightly

Since 2001-02 (apart from 2002-03) the stats record lists each game's officials. Two things could make Game 1 the low point for fouls: lighter-whistled crews assigned to Game 1s, or the same officials calling Game 1s differently. The data point to the second. Game 1 crews run +0.00 fouls per 100 possessions against the series' other crews by their usual tendency (−0.03 to +0.03, across 314 NBA series), so assignment explains little or none of it. But the same NBA officials call 1.15 fewer fouls per 100 possessions in their Game 1s than in their later games, across 63 officials, and the WNBA's do the same. Officials do differ from one another: in the NBA an official's foul level in even-numbered seasons tracks their level in odd ones, at r = +0.50. Recent games mostly list four officials, one of them an alternate who did not work, and the stats record does not say which. The NBA's liveData box scores do, from 2019-20 in the NBA and from 2022 in the WNBA, and since October 19, 2026 those games count with the three who worked. Earlier four-official games are still left out, so 2017-18 and 2018-19 in the NBA and 2018 to 2021 in the WNBA are thin here.

The diagram below sets out the two explanations, and the chart after it follows both measures game by game.

Two explanations for the Game 1 foul dip, and what each measurement saysThe fact: Game 1 has the fewest foulsNBA games with listed officials: Game 1 runs −0.88 fouls per 100 possessions against theseries average (337 series).A. Lighter-whistling crews get Game1s?Each crew's usual foul level, from itsother games: the Game 1 crew against theseries' other crews.+0.00(−0.03 to +0.03, 314 series; WNBA +0.01)No: Game 1s get ordinary crews.B. The same officials call Game 1slighter?Each official's fouls per 100 possessionsin their Game 1s against their own latergames.−1.15(−1.41 to −0.88, 63 officials; WNBA−1.73)Yes: the dip is in how Game 1s arecalled.Officials do differ from one another: an NBA official's foul level in even-numbered seasonstracks their level in odd ones (r = +0.50). So crew assignment could have mattered; the datasay it did not.
Two explanations for the Game 1 foul dip, and what each measurement saysThe fact: Game 1 has the fewest foulsNBA games with listed officials: Game 1 runs−0.88 fouls per 100 possessions against theseries average (337 series).A. Lighter-whistling crews get Game 1s?Each crew's usual foul level, from its othergames: the Game 1 crew against the series'other crews.+0.00(−0.03 to +0.03, 314 series; WNBA +0.01)No: Game 1s get ordinary crews.B. The same officials call Game 1slighter?Each official's fouls per 100 possessions intheir Game 1s against their own later games.−1.15(−1.41 to −0.88, 63 officials; WNBA −1.73)Yes: the dip is in how Game 1s are called.Officials do differ from one another: an NBAofficial's foul level in even-numbered seasonstracks their level in odd ones (r = +0.50). Socrew assignment could have mattered; the data sayit did not.
The two explanations for the Game 1 foul dip. Crews assigned to Game 1s whistle at the same level as the series' other crews (A: +0.00 fouls per 100 possessions), while the same officials call 1.15 fewer fouls in their own Game 1s than in their later games (B). The dip comes from how Game 1s are called, not from who is assigned to them.
Fouls per 100 possessions against the series mean, by game number (solid), and the usual tendency of the game's crew (dashed), in the same units. Fouls dip at Game 1 in both leagues while the crew line stays flat at zero, so Game 1s get ordinary crews. WNBA games past Game 4 are left off; too few series reach them.

Playoff experience changes little

Teams with more playoff experience do not shoot their Game 1 threes any differently. With experience measured as the roster's career playoff games, weighted by minutes in the series, the more experienced team's Game 1 three-point percentage, relative to its own later games, runs +0.18 points against the less experienced team's (−1.65 to +2.00) across 629 NBA series, and its share of shots from three +0.11. The one hint is fouls: the more experienced NBA team's Game 1 has 0.43 fewer fouls per 100 possessions, relative to its later games, an interval that only just clears zero, and 0.55 fewer when experience is counted as the franchise's playoff games in the three previous postseasons (−0.98 to −0.12). The WNBA shows no difference on any measure.

The more experienced team's own Game 1 minus its own later games, minus the same for the less experienced team, every series with an experience gap, with 95% intervals. Shooting rates in percentage points, fouls per 100 possessions. Only the NBA's two foul intervals sit below zero.
Limits

What this can and cannot say

Box scores record what happened, not why. A difference between Game 1 and later games mixes scouting adjustments, officiating, rest, and game script, and this design compares them without separating them. Three-point attempts are missing from most NBA box scores before 1984-85, so earlier seasons are left out. The 2026 WNBA Finals was in progress when the data were first gathered; it was added after it ended, so the data now run through Game 7 of that series.

The game logs come from stats.nba.com and stay local; this page and its repository publish only summaries, never the game-by-game records.

Method, code, and verification

The full technical write-up (data provenance, model specification, validation gates, and stated limitations) is the README. The analysis is implemented independently in R and Python and reconciled to numeric tolerance; run_checks.sh replays every gate.