Every NBA and WNBA playoff series

Is Game 1 three-point shooting worse than the rest of a playoff series?

Broadcasters say it every spring: teams come out cold in Game 1, shake off the layoff, and shoot better once they know the opponent. This study checks every NBA playoff series since 1984-85 and every WNBA series with more than one game, comparing each series' Game 1 with the games after it. Game 1 accuracy holds up fine. What changes is volume: NBA teams take a smaller share of their shots from three in Game 1, and that share keeps climbing as the series goes on. Game 1 also has the fewest fouls of any game, in both leagues.

NBA accuracy

−0.03

Game 1 three-point percentage minus Games 2 on, in points, across 630 series (95% interval −0.87 to +0.82).

WNBA accuracy

+0.26

The same comparison across 170 series (−1.14 to +1.67). No Game 1 dip.

NBA volume

−1.32

Points of field-goal attempts taken from three, Game 1 against Games 2 on (−1.61 to −1.03).

Fouls in Game 1

−1.05

NBA fouls per 100 possessions against the series average (WNBA −1.00).

The question

A fair comparison inside each series

Comparing Game 1s across the league with later games would mix in which teams are still playing: by Game 7 only close series remain. So every comparison here stays inside one series, with the same two teams. Both teams' threes are pooled for Game 1 and for Games 2 on, and the difference is averaged over series. Because Games 6 and 7 exist only in close series, the same estimate is repeated against Game 2 alone, which every series has. A Game 1 effect has to show up in both versions to count.

The analysis plan was written down and fixed before any Game 1 number was computed. It was implemented twice, in Python and in R, and the two agree on every output cell.

The answer

Game 1 accuracy is not worse

Game 1 minus later games in the same series, in percentage points with 95% intervals. Accuracy sits on zero in both leagues and on both comparisons: the NBA is −0.03 against Games 2 on and −0.32 against Game 2 alone, the WNBA +0.26 and +0.64. NBA attempt rate is lower in Game 1 on both comparisons, −1.32 and −1.02. WNBA attempt rate is not distinguishable from zero.

Counting every three-pointer together instead of averaging series, NBA Game 1s actually shot a little better than later games: 35.11% against 34.83%. Nothing here supports a cold Game 1.

Through a series

Volume climbs, game by game

Following every rate through the series, with each team measured against its own average for that series, shows the volume change is not a Game 1 quirk. In the NBA the share of shots from three rises steadily from Game 1 to Game 7, and it still rises when only series that went the distance are kept, so the climb is not a change in which series are present.

Share of a team's shots taken from three, against that team's average for the series, by game number. NBA Game 1 sits at −1.07 points and Game 7 at +1.01. The WNBA has no trend.

One natural explanation is that the team behind in the series starts shooting its way back. The data say the opposite: from Game 2 on, the team trailing in the series takes relatively fewer threes than the leader, by −1.07 points in the NBA (−1.35 to −0.80) and −2.34 in the WNBA. Trailing teams have also just lost games, so this sorts teams by recent results rather than showing intent.

Fouls per 100 possessions against each team's series average, by game number. Game 1 is the low point in both leagues (NBA −1.05, WNBA −1.00) and Game 2 jumps back up. Free-throw rate follows the same pattern (NBA −2.23 points in Game 1).

Fewer fouls in Game 1 can mean fewer called or fewer committed; box scores cannot separate the two.

Across eras

The game changed around Game 1

The NBA of 1984-85 barely used the three: in that season's Game 1s, 4.3% of shots came from beyond the arc. By 2025-26 it was 40.1%. Game 1 and later games rose together, and accuracy in Game 1 kept pace with accuracy later in the series the whole way. The lines cross back and forth from season to season in both leagues, and neither sits consistently below the other.

Three-point percentage by season, every series pooled. Game 1 is solid, Games 2 on dashed. The two lines trade places from season to season in both leagues. WNBA seasons hold only a few multi-game series, so its lines jump more.

Split by decade, the Game 1 accuracy gap includes zero in every NBA decade. The one WNBA decade that clears zero is the 1990s, at −6.55 points, but that rests on just 6 series from the league's first two postseasons.

Game 1 minus Games 2 on, three-point percentage, by decade, with 95% intervals. Every NBA decade includes zero, from −1.16 in the 1980s to +0.82 in the 2010s. The WNBA's 1990s point comes from 6 series.

Volume is where the eras differ. NBA teams took a smaller share of their shots from three in Game 1 than in the rest of the series in every season from 1984-85 through 2019-20. The gap was −1.43 points in the 1990s and −1.79 in both the 2000s and the 2010s. In the 2020s it shrinks to −0.30 (−1.14 to +0.54), and some recent seasons reverse it. The decade is not over, so this is a narrowing to watch rather than a settled change. The WNBA shows no decade with a volume gap that holds up beyond its first two seasons.

Share of field-goal attempts taken from three, by season, every series pooled. Game 1 is solid, Games 2 on dashed. The NBA's Game 1 line sits under its later-games line every season through 2019-20, and the two meet in the 2020s.

Game 1 minus Games 2 on, share of shots from three, by decade, with 95% intervals. The NBA gap is −1.79 points in the 2000s and 2010s and −0.30 in the 2020s, an interval that includes zero.

Stakes and rest

Neither the round nor the layoff changes it

No round, from the first round to the Finals, shows a Game 1 accuracy gap that holds on both comparisons. The NBA's lower Game 1 volume appears in the first round (−1.60), the conference finals (−1.56), and the Finals (−1.65), so it is not about stakes. Rest gaps, where one team swept and the other went long, show at most a hint of rust in the NBA: across 337 series with a gap, the more-rested team's Game 1 shooting is relatively worse by 2.49 points (−4.92 to −0.06), but no single size of gap clears zero on its own. Rest also arrives with recent form, so this stays a hint.

Limits

What this can and cannot say

Box scores record what happened, not why. A difference between Game 1 and later games mixes scouting adjustments, officiating, rest, and game script, and this design compares them without separating them. Three-point attempts are missing from most NBA box scores before 1984-85, so earlier seasons are left out. The 2026 WNBA Finals was in progress when the data were gathered and is excluded until it ends.

The game logs come from stats.nba.com and stay local; this page and its repository publish only summaries, never the game-by-game records.

Method, code, and verification

The full technical write-up (data provenance, model specification, validation gates, and stated limitations) is the README. The analysis is implemented independently in R and Python and reconciled to numeric tolerance; run_checks.sh replays every gate.