2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,409 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Above-the-break three team: corners are only 22.0% of their threes (league 25.9%); their spacing lives higher on the arc.
CJ McCollum is a genuine shot-maker: +4.6 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Justin Champagnie (1.18 xPPS on 462 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: K. Middleton - C. McCollum - B. Coulibaly - A. Sarr - T. Johnson (+9.2/100 over 196 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
WAS
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.070
1.091
-0.022
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.076
1.097
-0.021
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-0.6
-0.5
-0.0
Rim share
27.3%
28.4%
-1.1 pp
Mid-range share
12.7%
10.0%
+2.7 pp
Three share
40.3%
41.5%
-1.2 pp
Corner share of threes
22.0%
25.9%
-3.9 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.7%
1.8%
-0.2 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Bub Carrington
741
1.076
1.007
+6.9
+4.5
-5.1
Alex Sarr
656
1.040
1.086
-4.6
-3.6
-2.2
Tre Johnson
647
1.015
1.005
+1.1
+0.5
-0.6
Will Riley
618
1.003
1.055
-5.2
-3.8
-3.5
Kyshawn George
577
1.049
1.024
+2.5
+1.4
-1.8
Bilal Coulibaly
541
0.970
1.145
-17.4
-11.9
-2.4
CJ McCollum
529
1.089
1.010
+7.9
+4.6
+3.4
Justin Champagnie
462
1.119
1.181
-6.2
-4.2
-0.5
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
K. Middleton - C. McCollum - B. Coulibaly - A. Sarr - T. Johnson
88
196
+9.2
K. Middleton - C. McCollum - B. Coulibaly - A. Sarr - K. George
90
192
-12.5
K. Middleton - C. McCollum - A. Sarr - B. Carrington - K. George