2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,250 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
corner three: A three-pointer from the corner, where the NBA line is roughly 3 ft closer than the arc - the geometry discount that makes it the cheapest three.
Keys
They hunt corner threes: 28.0% of their threes come from the corners (league 25.9%). Run shooters off the corner line first.
Brandon Ingram is a genuine shot-maker: +2.8 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Sandro Mamukelashvili (1.21 xPPS on 631 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: B. Ingram - S. Barnes - S. Mamukelashvili - J. Walter - J. Shead (+10.2/100 over 197 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
TOR
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.093
1.091
+0.001
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.124
1.097
+0.028
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-3.2
-0.5
-2.6
Rim share
30.2%
28.4%
+1.8 pp
Mid-range share
12.0%
10.0%
+1.9 pp
Three share
36.3%
41.5%
-5.2 pp
Corner share of threes
28.0%
25.9%
+2.1 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.7%
1.8%
-0.2 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Brandon Ingram
1,288
1.058
1.024
+3.5
+2.8
-1.6
Scottie Barnes
1,123
1.074
1.121
-4.7
-4.0
+2.5
Immanuel Quickley
905
1.083
1.045
+3.8
+2.6
+0.6
RJ Barrett
816
1.100
1.138
-3.8
-3.0
+1.7
Sandro Mamukelashvili
631
1.228
1.206
+2.2
+1.3
+1.9
Jamal Shead
504
0.901
1.070
-16.9
-10.7
+2.8
Ja'Kobe Walter
404
1.163
1.179
-1.6
-1.1
-1.4
Gradey Dick
384
0.984
1.143
-15.9
-9.4
+1.3
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
B. Ingram - J. Poeltl - R. Barrett - I. Quickley - S. Barnes
354
760
+8.6
B. Ingram - R. Barrett - I. Quickley - S. Barnes - C. Murray-Boyles
160
343
+3.8
B. Ingram - S. Barnes - S. Mamukelashvili - J. Walter - J. Shead