2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,371 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
corner three: A three-pointer from the corner, where the NBA line is roughly 3 ft closer than the arc - the geometry discount that makes it the cheapest three.
Keys
They hunt corner threes: 32.7% of their threes come from the corners (league 25.9%). Run shooters off the corner line first.
Rim-pressure offense: 31.2% of attempts at the rim vs league 28.4%. Wall building beats switching small.
Keldon Johnson is a genuine shot-maker: +2.3 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Victor Wembanyama (1.17 xPPS on 1080 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: H. Barnes - D. Fox - J. Champagnie - V. Wembanyama - S. Castle (+19.9/100 over 287 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
SAS
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.118
1.091
+0.027
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.134
1.097
+0.037
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-1.6
-0.5
-1.1
Rim share
31.2%
28.4%
+2.8 pp
Mid-range share
9.6%
10.0%
-0.5 pp
Three share
42.2%
41.5%
+0.7 pp
Corner share of threes
32.7%
25.9%
+6.7 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.8%
1.8%
-0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Victor Wembanyama
1,080
1.137
1.166
-2.9
-2.5
+6.5
De'Aaron Fox
1,047
1.097
1.069
+2.9
+2.1
+1.5
Stephon Castle
817
1.042
1.110
-6.8
-5.3
+0.6
Keldon Johnson
797
1.163
1.129
+3.4
+2.3
+1.4
Devin Vassell
755
1.094
1.076
+1.8
+1.0
+3.0
Julian Champagnie
689
1.157
1.151
+0.6
+0.2
+3.8
Dylan Harper
656
1.102
1.131
-2.9
-2.3
+2.0
Harrison Barnes
575
1.153
1.116
+3.7
+2.1
+0.5
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
D. Fox - D. Vassell - J. Champagnie - V. Wembanyama - S. Castle
284
619
+17.4
H. Barnes - D. Fox - J. Champagnie - V. Wembanyama - S. Castle
136
287
+19.9
H. Barnes - D. Vassell - J. Champagnie - V. Wembanyama - S. Castle