2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,299 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Mid-range reliant: 16.0% from mid-range vs league 10.0%; live with contested twos over open threes.
Maxime Raynaud is a genuine shot-maker: +9.5 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Precious Achiuwa (1.13 xPPS on 598 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: R. Westbrook - D. DeRozan - P. Achiuwa - N. Clifford - M. Raynaud (+0.8/100 over 260 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
SAC
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.049
1.091
-0.042
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.043
1.097
-0.054
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
+0.6
-0.5
+1.2
Rim share
22.6%
28.4%
-5.8 pp
Mid-range share
16.0%
10.0%
+6.0 pp
Three share
33.9%
41.5%
-7.6 pp
Corner share of threes
24.5%
25.9%
-1.4 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.9%
1.8%
+0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
DeMar DeRozan
1,005
1.040
0.928
+11.1
+8.9
-3.2
Russell Westbrook
839
1.006
1.021
-1.5
-1.3
-2.2
Maxime Raynaud
671
1.177
1.048
+12.9
+9.5
-2.9
Malik Monk
632
1.073
1.034
+3.8
+2.3
-1.1
Precious Achiuwa
598
1.102
1.133
-3.1
-2.5
+0.1
Nique Clifford
596
0.965
1.032
-6.7
-4.7
+0.8
Zach LaVine
547
1.139
1.048
+9.1
+5.5
-1.8
Dennis Schröder
422
0.950
0.982
-3.1
-2.1
-1.7
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
R. Westbrook - D. DeRozan - P. Achiuwa - K. Murray - M. Raynaud
130
275
-22.5
R. Westbrook - D. DeRozan - P. Achiuwa - N. Clifford - M. Raynaud
118
260
+0.8
R. Westbrook - D. DeRozan - Z. LaVine - P. Achiuwa - M. Raynaud