2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,389 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Rim-pressure offense: 31.8% of attempts at the rim vs league 28.4%. Wall building beats switching small.
Volume-three profile: 46.9% of attempts from deep (league 41.5%).
Jrue Holiday is a genuine shot-maker: +3.5 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Donovan Clingan (1.24 xPPS on 684 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: D. Avdija - S. Sharpe - K. Murray - T. Camara - D. Clingan (+5.3/100 over 225 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
POR
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.067
1.091
-0.024
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.122
1.097
+0.025
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-5.4
-0.5
-4.9
Rim share
31.8%
28.4%
+3.4 pp
Mid-range share
6.5%
10.0%
-3.6 pp
Three share
46.9%
41.5%
+5.3 pp
Corner share of threes
25.5%
25.9%
-0.4 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.9%
1.8%
+0.0 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Deni Avdija
1,064
1.042
1.076
-3.4
-2.8
+0.1
Toumani Camara
891
1.126
1.139
-1.3
-1.1
+0.1
Shaedon Sharpe
868
1.022
1.074
-5.2
-4.1
-0.5
Jerami Grant
730
1.093
1.100
-0.7
-0.6
-0.2
Jrue Holiday
709
1.096
1.042
+5.4
+3.5
+3.3
Donovan Clingan
684
1.164
1.243
-7.9
-5.8
+0.3
Caleb Love
490
0.965
1.053
-8.7
-5.4
-1.5
Scoot Henderson
342
1.003
1.070
-6.7
-3.8
+0.5
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
J. Holiday - J. Grant - D. Avdija - T. Camara - D. Clingan
160
343
+0.3
J. Holiday - D. Avdija - S. Sharpe - T. Camara - D. Clingan
150
331
-3.0
D. Avdija - S. Sharpe - K. Murray - T. Camara - D. Clingan