2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,389 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Above-the-break three team: corners are only 22.5% of their threes (league 25.9%); their spacing lives higher on the arc.
Volume-three profile: 45.3% of attempts from deep (league 41.5%).
Royce O'Neale is a genuine shot-maker: +6.3 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Mark Williams (1.31 xPPS on 438 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: D. Booker - R. O'Neale - J. Green - C. Gillespie - O. Ighodaro (+10.8/100 over 268 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
PHX
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.074
1.091
-0.018
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.080
1.097
-0.016
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-0.7
-0.5
-0.1
Rim share
23.4%
28.4%
-5.0 pp
Mid-range share
12.2%
10.0%
+2.2 pp
Three share
45.3%
41.5%
+3.8 pp
Corner share of threes
22.5%
25.9%
-3.4 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
2.0%
1.8%
+0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Devin Booker
1,198
1.013
0.996
+1.8
+1.3
+3.6
Dillon Brooks
959
1.002
0.985
+1.8
+1.2
-1.4
Collin Gillespie
842
1.112
1.024
+8.8
+5.8
+3.0
Grayson Allen
667
1.045
1.025
+2.0
+1.1
+0.2
Royce O'Neale
625
1.181
1.072
+10.9
+6.3
-3.0
Jordan Goodwin
555
1.027
1.098
-7.1
-4.7
+0.8
Jalen Green
512
0.982
1.071
-8.8
-5.8
-0.2
Mark Williams
438
1.290
1.313
-2.3
-1.8
-0.5
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
D. Booker - R. O'Neale - D. Brooks - M. Williams - C. Gillespie
267
577
+10.1
D. Booker - R. O'Neale - J. Green - C. Gillespie - O. Ighodaro
123
268
+10.8
D. Booker - R. O'Neale - D. Brooks - G. Allen - M. Williams