2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,404 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Above-the-break three team: corners are only 23.2% of their threes (league 25.9%); their spacing lives higher on the arc.
Rim-pressure offense: 31.8% of attempts at the rim vs league 28.4%. Wall building beats switching small.
Joel Embiid is a genuine shot-maker: +2.0 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Dominick Barlow (1.23 xPPS on 399 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: J. Embiid - K. Oubre Jr. - T. Maxey - D. Barlow - V. Edgecombe (+11.8/100 over 322 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
PHI
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.061
1.091
-0.030
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.096
1.097
-0.000
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-3.6
-0.5
-3.0
Rim share
31.8%
28.4%
+3.4 pp
Mid-range share
11.2%
10.0%
+1.2 pp
Three share
39.1%
41.5%
-2.4 pp
Corner share of threes
23.2%
25.9%
-2.7 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.9%
1.8%
+0.0 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Tyrese Maxey
1,501
1.071
1.048
+2.3
+1.8
+1.8
VJ Edgecombe
1,030
1.020
1.087
-6.7
-5.3
+0.8
Quentin Grimes
755
1.069
1.119
-5.1
-3.8
+0.4
Joel Embiid
697
1.055
1.025
+3.0
+2.0
+2.4
Kelly Oubre Jr.
544
1.092
1.112
-2.0
-1.5
-1.6
Paul George
513
1.072
1.039
+3.3
+1.8
+1.0
Dominick Barlow
399
1.130
1.231
-10.0
-6.8
+0.0
Andre Drummond
337
1.039
1.219
-18.1
-10.4
-1.1
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
P. George - J. Embiid - T. Maxey - D. Barlow - V. Edgecombe
193
397
-0.8
J. Embiid - K. Oubre Jr. - T. Maxey - D. Barlow - V. Edgecombe
153
322
+11.8
A. Drummond - K. Oubre Jr. - T. Maxey - D. Barlow - V. Edgecombe