2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,307 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a genuine shot-maker: +14.2 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Chet Holmgren (1.18 xPPS on 779 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: I. Hartenstein - S. Gilgeous-Alexander - L. Dort - C. Holmgren - J. Williams (+28.5/100 over 239 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
OKC
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.123
1.091
+0.031
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.104
1.097
+0.007
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
+1.9
-0.5
+2.4
Rim share
28.0%
28.4%
-0.4 pp
Mid-range share
10.8%
10.0%
+0.7 pp
Three share
42.6%
41.5%
+1.1 pp
Corner share of threes
24.3%
25.9%
-1.6 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.9%
1.8%
+0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
1,321
1.194
1.023
+17.1
+14.2
+6.2
Chet Holmgren
779
1.227
1.178
+4.9
+3.6
+5.2
Ajay Mitchell
590
1.073
1.028
+4.5
+2.9
+4.0
Cason Wallace
584
1.036
1.139
-10.4
-7.0
+1.9
Isaiah Joe
543
1.243
1.106
+13.7
+7.5
+2.0
Aaron Wiggins
536
1.041
1.108
-6.7
-4.4
-0.3
Luguentz Dort
524
1.015
1.108
-9.3
-5.8
-1.9
Jalen Williams
446
1.020
1.068
-4.8
-3.4
+0.8
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
I. Hartenstein - S. Gilgeous-Alexander - L. Dort - C. Holmgren - C. Wallace
167
350
+18.9
S. Gilgeous-Alexander - L. Dort - C. Holmgren - J. Williams - C. Wallace
126
286
+24.8
I. Hartenstein - S. Gilgeous-Alexander - L. Dort - C. Holmgren - J. Williams