2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,420 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Above-the-break three team: corners are only 23.7% of their threes (league 25.9%); their spacing lives higher on the arc.
Rim-pressure offense: 38.4% of attempts at the rim vs league 28.4%. Wall building beats switching small.
Zion Williamson is a genuine shot-maker: +4.3 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Yves Missi (1.25 xPPS on 294 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: S. Bey - H. Jones - T. Murphy III - J. Fears - D. Queen (+6.8/100 over 251 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
NOP
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.054
1.091
-0.037
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.118
1.097
+0.021
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-6.3
-0.5
-5.8
Rim share
38.4%
28.4%
+10.0 pp
Mid-range share
6.9%
10.0%
-3.1 pp
Three share
35.5%
41.5%
-6.0 pp
Corner share of threes
23.7%
25.9%
-2.2 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
2.0%
1.8%
+0.2 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Trey Murphy III
1,050
1.145
1.119
+2.6
+1.8
-0.1
Jeremiah Fears
1,006
0.969
1.079
-11.0
-8.8
-1.9
Saddiq Bey
967
1.058
1.101
-4.3
-3.4
-0.6
Zion Williamson
807
1.201
1.147
+5.4
+4.3
+0.6
Derik Queen
748
0.977
1.103
-12.5
-9.8
-2.3
Herbert Jones
478
0.933
1.126
-19.2
-12.0
+0.8
Jordan Poole
444
0.959
1.054
-9.5
-5.6
-1.6
Yves Missi
294
1.088
1.250
-16.2
-10.1
+0.6
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
Z. Williamson - S. Bey - H. Jones - T. Murphy III - D. Queen
139
298
-5.7
Z. Williamson - S. Bey - T. Murphy III - J. Fears - D. Queen
118
263
-17.9
S. Bey - H. Jones - T. Murphy III - J. Fears - D. Queen