2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,260 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Anthony Edwards is a genuine shot-maker: +7.7 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Rudy Gobert (1.39 xPPS on 491 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: M. Conley - R. Gobert - J. Randle - D. DiVincenzo - J. McDaniels (+15.9/100 over 226 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
MIN
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.118
1.091
+0.027
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.106
1.097
+0.009
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
+1.2
-0.5
+1.8
Rim share
29.5%
28.4%
+1.1 pp
Mid-range share
10.0%
10.0%
-0.1 pp
Three share
42.0%
41.5%
+0.5 pp
Corner share of threes
25.8%
25.9%
-0.1 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.9%
1.8%
+0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Anthony Edwards
1,231
1.145
1.047
+9.7
+7.7
+0.4
Julius Randle
1,207
1.051
1.075
-2.4
-2.1
+1.3
Naz Reid
871
1.098
1.066
+3.2
+2.2
+1.3
Donte DiVincenzo
835
1.104
1.103
+0.1
-0.1
+3.3
Jaden McDaniels
809
1.158
1.097
+6.1
+4.4
-0.9
Rudy Gobert
491
1.365
1.393
-2.8
-2.3
+1.5
Bones Hyland
468
1.154
1.094
+6.0
+3.1
+1.3
Ayo Dosunmu
261
1.180
1.095
+8.5
+3.7
-0.7
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
R. Gobert - J. Randle - D. DiVincenzo - A. Edwards - J. McDaniels
710
1,502
+7.6
M. Conley - R. Gobert - J. Randle - D. DiVincenzo - J. McDaniels
106
226
+15.9
R. Gobert - D. DiVincenzo - N. Reid - A. Edwards - J. McDaniels