2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,012 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
corner three: A three-pointer from the corner, where the NBA line is roughly 3 ft closer than the arc - the geometry discount that makes it the cheapest three.
Keys
They hunt corner threes: 29.0% of their threes come from the corners (league 25.9%). Run shooters off the corner line first.
Volume-three profile: 45.7% of attempts from deep (league 41.5%).
Mid-range reliant: 13.1% from mid-range vs league 10.0%; live with contested twos over open threes.
Bobby Portis is a genuine shot-maker: +9.4 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.26 xPPS on 598 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: G. Antetokounmpo - M. Turner - K. Porter Jr. - R. Rollins - A. Green (+12.1/100 over 364 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
MIL
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.131
1.091
+0.040
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.099
1.097
+0.003
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
+3.1
-0.5
+3.7
Rim share
25.5%
28.4%
-2.9 pp
Mid-range share
13.1%
10.0%
+3.1 pp
Three share
45.7%
41.5%
+4.2 pp
Corner share of threes
29.0%
25.9%
+3.1 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.8%
1.8%
-0.0 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Ryan Rollins
1,030
1.122
1.061
+6.1
+4.5
+0.8
Bobby Portis
750
1.156
1.020
+13.6
+9.4
-1.7
Kyle Kuzma
689
1.104
1.107
-0.3
-0.4
-2.0
Myles Turner
646
1.107
1.102
+0.5
+0.1
-1.6
AJ Green
618
1.223
1.089
+13.4
+7.6
+0.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo
598
1.273
1.257
+1.6
+1.1
+3.5
Kevin Porter Jr.
514
1.019
1.065
-4.5
-3.2
+0.2
Gary Trent Jr.
473
1.034
1.058
-2.4
-1.6
-4.1
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
G. Antetokounmpo - M. Turner - K. Porter Jr. - R. Rollins - A. Green
173
364
+12.1
G. Antetokounmpo - M. Turner - G. Trent Jr. - R. Rollins - A. Green
169
350
-9.7
M. Turner - K. Kuzma - G. Trent Jr. - R. Rollins - A. Green