2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,648 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Tyler Herro is a genuine shot-maker: +7.2 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Kel'el Ware (1.24 xPPS on 649 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: A. Wiggins - N. Powell - B. Adebayo - T. Herro - D. Mitchell (+4.2/100 over 287 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
MIA
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.084
1.091
-0.008
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.091
1.097
-0.005
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
Rim share
28.8%
28.4%
+0.4 pp
Mid-range share
7.5%
10.0%
-2.5 pp
Three share
40.6%
41.5%
-0.9 pp
Corner share of threes
25.8%
25.9%
-0.1 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.6%
1.8%
-0.3 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Bam Adebayo
1,145
0.995
1.090
-9.5
-7.8
+4.2
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
915
1.078
1.046
+3.2
+2.4
+1.9
Norman Powell
895
1.115
1.059
+5.6
+4.0
-0.6
Andrew Wiggins
821
1.118
1.074
+4.4
+3.0
-1.4
Kel'el Ware
649
1.202
1.241
-3.9
-2.9
-1.6
Pelle Larsson
559
1.102
1.118
-1.6
-1.3
+0.4
Davion Mitchell
533
1.148
1.053
+9.5
+5.7
+2.4
Tyler Herro
515
1.122
1.003
+11.9
+7.2
-1.9
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
A. Wiggins - B. Adebayo - T. Herro - D. Mitchell - P. Larsson
182
391
+2.8
A. Wiggins - N. Powell - B. Adebayo - D. Mitchell - K. Ware
142
310
-0.3
A. Wiggins - N. Powell - B. Adebayo - T. Herro - D. Mitchell