2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,280 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Volume-three profile: 49.7% of attempts from deep (league 41.5%).
Stephen Curry is a genuine shot-maker: +10.9 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Draymond Green (1.13 xPPS on 491 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: S. Curry - J. Butler III - D. Green - J. Kuminga - B. Podziemski (+17.6/100 over 142 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
GSW
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.099
1.091
+0.008
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.089
1.097
-0.008
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
+1.0
-0.5
+1.6
Rim share
25.7%
28.4%
-2.7 pp
Mid-range share
7.9%
10.0%
-2.2 pp
Three share
49.7%
41.5%
+8.2 pp
Corner share of threes
26.5%
25.9%
+0.6 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
2.0%
1.8%
+0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Brandin Podziemski
866
1.087
1.040
+4.6
+3.2
+0.7
Stephen Curry
799
1.174
1.012
+16.1
+10.9
+1.8
Moses Moody
557
1.151
1.102
+4.9
+2.7
+1.7
De'Anthony Melton
528
0.951
1.044
-9.3
-6.2
+2.3
Draymond Green
491
1.041
1.133
-9.2
-5.7
-3.2
Jimmy Butler III
462
1.108
1.100
+0.8
+0.3
+3.8
Gui Santos
460
1.170
1.118
+5.1
+2.9
+1.5
Quinten Post
439
1.091
1.113
-2.2
-1.5
+0.8
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
S. Curry - J. Butler III - D. Green - M. Moody - Q. Post
125
275
-6.9
S. Curry - J. Butler III - D. Green - J. Kuminga - B. Podziemski
65
142
+17.6
J. Butler III - D. Green - M. Moody - B. Podziemski - Q. Post