2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,417 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Rim-pressure offense: 35.2% of attempts at the rim vs league 28.4%. Wall building beats switching small.
Nikola Vučević is a genuine shot-maker: +4.3 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Isaac Okoro (1.21 xPPS on 459 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: N. Vučević - K. Huerter - I. Okoro - J. Giddey - M. Buzelis (+3.5/100 over 142 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
CHI
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.095
1.091
+0.004
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.142
1.097
+0.045
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-4.7
-0.5
-4.1
Rim share
35.2%
28.4%
+6.8 pp
Mid-range share
4.5%
10.0%
-5.6 pp
Three share
44.3%
41.5%
+2.8 pp
Corner share of threes
26.5%
25.9%
+0.6 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.8%
1.8%
-0.1 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Matas Buzelis
963
1.106
1.182
-7.6
-5.9
-2.1
Josh Giddey
717
1.039
1.086
-4.7
-3.5
-0.6
Nikola Vučević
660
1.133
1.069
+6.5
+4.3
+0.5
Tre Jones
617
1.172
1.139
+3.2
+2.2
+0.4
Ayo Dosunmu
486
1.208
1.178
+2.9
+1.6
-0.7
Patrick Williams
478
0.944
1.096
-15.2
-9.2
-4.1
Isaac Okoro
459
1.078
1.209
-13.1
-8.2
-3.5
Jalen Smith
404
1.168
1.197
-2.8
-1.8
+3.4
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
N. Vučević - C. White - I. Okoro - J. Giddey - M. Buzelis
103
225
-3.1
N. Vučević - I. Okoro - T. Jones - J. Giddey - M. Buzelis
76
165
-13.9
N. Vučević - K. Huerter - I. Okoro - J. Giddey - M. Buzelis