2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,398 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Above-the-break three team: corners are only 17.4% of their threes (league 25.9%); their spacing lives higher on the arc.
Volume-three profile: 46.7% of attempts from deep (league 41.5%).
Luka Garza is a genuine shot-maker: +9.7 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Neemias Queta (1.26 xPPS on 499 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: J. Brown - D. White - N. Queta - P. Pritchard - S. Hauser (+19.5/100 over 411 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
BOS
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.106
1.091
+0.014
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.051
1.097
-0.046
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
+5.5
-0.5
+6.0
Rim share
21.0%
28.4%
-7.4 pp
Mid-range share
12.4%
10.0%
+2.3 pp
Three share
46.7%
41.5%
+5.2 pp
Corner share of threes
17.4%
25.9%
-8.5 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
2.0%
1.8%
+0.2 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Jaylen Brown
1,543
1.045
0.982
+6.3
+5.3
-0.6
Derrick White
1,108
0.977
1.011
-3.3
-2.7
+4.5
Payton Pritchard
1,091
1.122
0.994
+12.8
+9.7
+2.0
Sam Hauser
601
1.168
1.085
+8.3
+4.6
+2.0
Anfernee Simons
568
1.109
0.995
+11.4
+6.8
-0.1
Neemias Queta
499
1.309
1.261
+4.7
+3.4
+3.9
Luka Garza
357
1.308
1.128
+18.0
+9.7
+0.5
Baylor Scheierman
333
1.198
1.075
+12.3
+5.3
+0.8
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
J. Brown - D. White - N. Queta - P. Pritchard - S. Hauser
200
411
+19.5
J. Brown - D. White - N. Queta - P. Pritchard - J. Walsh
192
388
+2.3
J. Brown - J. Tatum - D. White - N. Queta - S. Hauser