2025-26 regular season · 82 games · 7,541 FGA. Auto-generated by scouting/build_onepager.py from public data; every number traceable to a gated pipeline in this repo. Shot pricing uses the 2023-24 shot-quality model, whose season-out transfer was validated in the backtest; shot-making is empirical-Bayes shrunk before it is allowed to drive a conclusion.
Terms
PPS: Points per shot: total points on field-goal attempts divided by attempts. Free throws excluded.
xPPS: Expected points per shot - the model's fair price of a shot diet: what an average shooter would score on the same attempts, judged from location and shot type alone, before knowing what went in.
shot-making: Actual minus expected points per 100 shots: conversion above or below what the shot diet itself explains. Positive means making shots the model prices as hard.
EB making: A player's shot-making after empirical-Bayes shrinkage: the observed number pulled toward the league mean in proportion to its sampling noise. The number to trust for projection.
FGA: Field-goal attempts.
RAPM: Regularized adjusted plus-minus: a ridge regression crediting each player with net points per 100 possessions while adjusting for the other nine players on the floor.
net_100: Net points per 100 possessions: 100 x plus-minus / possessions; sits on the same scale as the NBA's published net rating.
rush: Shots in the final four seconds of a period - the desperation window where both shot selection and execution collapse.
empirical Bayes: Estimate the spread of true skill across the league from the data, then pull each individual's noisy estimate toward the league mean in proportion to its noise.
shrinkage weight: The fraction of an observed number that survives empirical-Bayes regression: 1 means fully trusted, 0 means replaced by the league mean.
CI: Confidence interval.
Keys
Vít Krejčí is a genuine shot-maker: +6.1 pts/100 above expectation after empirical-Bayes shrinkage; contest even the bad shots.
Best shot diet: Mouhamed Gueye (1.22 xPPS on 290 FGA). The value is where the shots come from; deny the spot, not the release.
Their most-used five that wins its minutes: C. McCollum - N. Alexander-Walker - O. Okongwu - J. Johnson - D. Daniels (+20.4/100 over 848 possessions).
Shot profile vs league
ATL
League
Δ
PPS (points per shot)
1.107
1.091
+0.016
xPPS, the shot-diet price*
1.117
1.097
+0.020
Shot-making, pts/100 vs model
-1.0
-0.5
-0.4
Rim share
28.8%
28.4%
+0.4 pp
Mid-range share
7.9%
10.0%
-2.1 pp
Three share
42.9%
41.5%
+1.4 pp
Corner share of threes
27.1%
25.9%
+1.2 pp
Final-4s (rush) shot share
1.6%
1.8%
-0.2 pp
* xPPS prices where they shoot from, independent of whether shots fell: the stable, scoutable part of the profile (year-over-year r ≈ .9).
Personnel (top 8 by volume)
Player
FGA
PPS
xPPS (diet)
Making/100
EB making
RAPM/100
Jalen Johnson
1,228
1.075
1.084
-0.9
-0.9
+0.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
1,195
1.127
1.097
+3.0
+2.2
+1.9
Onyeka Okongwu
860
1.128
1.133
-0.6
-0.6
-0.5
Dyson Daniels
777
1.063
1.142
-7.9
-6.3
+3.4
CJ McCollum
625
1.064
1.037
+2.7
+1.6
+3.4
Zaccharie Risacher
536
1.088
1.177
-8.9
-5.9
-1.4
Vít Krejčí
308
1.256
1.105
+15.1
+6.1
-1.1
Mouhamed Gueye
290
1.041
1.223
-18.1
-9.6
+0.5
EB making = shot-making regressed to league mean by reliability: the number to trust. RAPM from the opponent-adjusted 2025-26 lineup model (±≈3/100 CI at a season of minutes; treat as descriptive).
Most-used lineups
Lineup
Min
Poss
Net/100
C. McCollum - N. Alexander-Walker - O. Okongwu - J. Johnson - D. Daniels
391
848
+20.4
N. Alexander-Walker - O. Okongwu - J. Johnson - D. Daniels - Z. Risacher
304
680
+1.0
N. Alexander-Walker - O. Okongwu - V. Krejčí - J. Johnson - D. Daniels